Reasearch Notes-Summer 1997
Patricia A. Romanowicz
The final study of the Driving Performance Evaluation (DPE) drive test is underway and will be completed in December 1998. This evaluation is the final stage (Stage 5) of a multi-stage project to develop and evaluate a new drive test for possible statewide implementation in California. This study, which is being conducted by the California Department of Motor Vehicles' Research and Development Branch, will attempt to assess the ultimate-criterion validity of the DPE. Four groups of novice original driver license applicants will be identified: (1) persons applying for a license in DPE offices before DPE implementation, (2) persons applying for a license in DPE offices after DPE implementation, (3) persons applying for a license in offices giving the current drive test (non-DPE) before DPE implementation, and (4) persons applying for a license in non-DPE offices after DPE implementation. The analysis will compare the driving records for the two groups of applicants in the DPE offices for two years subsequent to application date to determine any change in accident or citation rates following DPE implementation. To control for biases from effects of factors unrelated to the drive test program, a similar comparison of driving records will be made for the two groups of applicants in non-DPE offices during the same time periods. If the DPE is a valid test, the changes in the DPE offices would be expected to show a significantly larger proportional reduction, or smaller proportional increase, in the rates of accidents and/or citations over time, compared to the changes occurring in the non-DPE offices. This study will involve a sample of over 500,000 drivers in order to provide very precise estimates of the impact of the DPE.
Thus far, the drivers in the DPE office sample have been identified and computer procedures for extracting driver record information and evaluating the relationship between type of test and subsequent driving record have been developed.
A previous (Stage 4) validity assessment was completed in 1995 under the title An Evaluation of the Validity of California's Driving Performance Evaluation Road Test (Report No. 154). That study found evidence that the DPE is a valid drive test, in that experienced drivers performed better on the test than did inexperienced drivers and drivers with worsening physical or mental disabilities.
Results of the Stage 3 study (Report No. 150) confirmed that the DPE test was more reliable and difficult than the current DMV road test.
The final study will provide a more powerful and definitive evaluation of the relative merits of the DPE compared to the standard road tests in producing a more competent and safer driving population.