CA Department of Motor Vehicles Licensing Operations Division Research and Development
Final Report Documents NOTS Benefits
by Erin J. Healey
The Negligent Operator Treatment Evaluation System (NOTES) has provided decision makers with biennial benefit-cost and effectiveness analyses of the Negligent Operator Treatment System (NOTS) since the first report was published in 1985. Prior to that time, annual effectiveness reports on the previous negligent driver program were provided by a similar evaluation system known as the Post Licensing Control Reporting and Evaluation System (PLCRES). The most recent experimental evaluation of NOTS (the current negligent-operator program) was based on the accumulated post-treatment records of 338,743 violators who entered the evaluation system between May 1991 and October 1994. The major findings of the evaluation were as follows:
- The NOTS program produced statistically significant reductions in traffic citations and accidents.
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During the period covered by the report, it is estimated that the NOTS program prevented 1,500 accidents per year. This translates into an estimated 9 lives saved and 638 injuries prevented each year. Specifically,
- Drivers receiving the Level 1 or Level 2 warning letters had fewer accidents than their no-contact control counterparts (reductions of 4.4% and 0.8% respectively). These differences were statistically significant in the first 6 months after treatment for Level 1 but not for Level 2.
- The probation hearing treatment at level 3 produced a statistically significant reduction in subsequent accidents (11.6%) and the probation-violator suspension treatment at Level 4 resulted in an even greater reduction in accidents (estimated to be 17.6%).
- Overall, the treatments were effective in reducing serious accidents (those involving an injury or fatality) as well as those involving only property damage.
- There was no indication that the introduction of telephone hearings in 1992, as an alternative to in-person hearings at Level 3, had any adverse impact on traffic safety.
- At level 3, there was statistically significant evidence that drivers with prior convictions for driving while suspended (CVC ?14601) were less responsive to the treatment. Drivers with prior 14601 convictions did not evidence a reduction in accidents or convictions as a result of the Level 3 intervention.
- Results showing improved program effectiveness on accidents and citations continued to support the 1988 program change which increased the use of license suspension for drivers who attended level-3 hearings. Before the change, only 3% of the level-3 drivers had a suspension imposed; after the change, the figure rose to 51%.
The final report makes several recommendations for improving program effectiveness, including introducing legislation to return to the previous policy of not assigning negligent-operator points to V.C. 14601 convictions.
Drivers become eligible for the NOTS program by accumulating negligent-operator points. Points are assigned for safety-related traffic convictions and for accidents in which the driver is at least partially responsible. As drivers continue to accumulate points, they progress from level 1 through level 4 of NOTS, with each level bringing a more severe departmental action. The evaluation system (NOTES) was based on the driving records of negligent operators randomly assigned to either a treatment or a control group. Members of the treatment group received the NOTS treatments for which they were eligible and members of the control group were not contacted.
The findings of the most recent NOTES report are consistent with those of previous reports. Since the inception of NOTES in 1985, it is estimated that driver safety interventions have prevented at least 24,300 accidents, which is twice the number of accidents that would have been prevented under the previous post-license control structure. The substantial increase in the number of accidents prevented per year is largely attributable to the restructuring of the entire neg-op program in 1983 in response to evidence of declining program effectiveness.
Although NOTES led to an overall substantial increase in the number of accidents prevented, status report number 7 reports a decline in the number of accidents prevented during the most recent years monitored (1993-1994). Among the factors responsible were substantial reductions in the total number of negligent-driver interventions initiated, which in turn, was due to significant declines in the number of traffic convictions received from the courts during the past several years.
In November 1994, the department decided to discontinue the use of untreated control groups in NOTES. The most recent NOTES report, therefore, represents the final experimental evaluation of the neg-op program in the series that began with the creation of PLCRES in 1976.
The latest research findings are presented in Negligent-Operator Treatment Evaluation System: Program Effectiveness Report #7 (Summary of Findings), which was completed in June 1995 and published as DMV Report 153. A companion report, entitled An Overview of Findings and Program Improvements, documents the genesis of the evaluation system and summarizes what was learned over the complete course of the evaluation project.
Those interested in obtaining copies of this or earlier reports can do so by contacting: DMV Research at 2415 First Avenue, Mail Station F-126, Sacramento, CA, 95818.
